Researchers believe Lake Michigan, shown near Frankfort, and Lake Huron dropped after the St. Clair River was scoured during an ice jam. (Dale G. Young / The Detroit News)
A steady drop in water levels in Lake Michigan/Huron over the first half of this decade resulted from natural causes, not man-made ones, according to U.S. and Canadian researchers, noting that the past 18 months of rising waters could be an indication the lakes are headed back to normal levels.
Researchers working for the International Joint Commission this week released the findings of a two-year study on the St. Clair River and the amount of water running through it out of Lake Michigan/Huron. The study was launched to answer questions by lake shore residents who had watched the steady drop of water levels in recent years.
The study found that Mother Nature has been behind the changes under way in the last eight years. "It's not ongoing; it has definitely stabilized," said Ted Yuzyk, the Canadian co-chair of the study board, who added the changes have reversed in the last 18 to 24 months. "And it's not human driven. This is more natural."
For years, many blamed the water loss on the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and dredging work the agency performed on the St. Clair River bed in the early 1960s -- work designed to broaden and deepen the channel for better navigation.
Critics believe that work increased the capacity of the river for carrying water out of Lake Huron and led to increased erosion of the river bed that continues today.
The commission is not calling for any corrective action in the Lake Huron-St. Clair River now. And that's not sitting well with members of the Canadian environmental group GBA Foundation, which funded its own study in 2004 which put the blame on human activity.
"The fact that (the report) completely dismisses such an enormous increase in outflow and recommends that nothing be done about it is very disturbing," said Roy Schatz, GBA's founding president, in a press release.
The joint commission looked at changes in the Great Lakes between 1962 and 2006, during which the difference in the water level between Lake Michigan/Huron and the lower-sitting Lake Erie has shrunk by nine inches.
Researchers suggest three contributing factors:
Chester Kolascz said he remembers the ice jams created on the St. Clair River in 1984 and isn't surprised it may have played a role. But after 32 years in the area, he has seen the water levels rise and fall and doesn't allow his concerns to move with them.
"My gut feeling is that the lakes in general are a cyclical thing," said Kolascz, 59, who runs the Port Sanilac Marina on Lake Huron. "And from what I'm seeing now, the levels are definitely in an upswing. I wouldn't be surprised if, by the end of the summer, we're back up near our historical averages."
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