As injury list thins, so should Red Wings' deficit in standings

Reasons to believe

By the end of this month, the only two Red Wings still on the injured list should be Andreas Lilja and Johan Franzen. If they were able to get 48 points in 41 games without eight top-end players, a 55-60-point second half doesn't seem out of the question.

That's assuming, of course, they continue their recommitment to defense. After letting their defensive structure lapse last season in deference to their potent offense, the Wings have been forced to lock down again. Their ability to do that -- their 2.46 goals-against average -- is the only reason, really, they are still in the hunt.

The depth has been bolstered. Players such as Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, Drew Miller, Ville Leino, Brett Lebda and Derek Meech have been asked to play more prominent roles than anybody expected. They have taken some lumps, for sure, but they've come through it as much more dependable players.

They will have the opportunity to thrive now when they go back to the roles (third and fourth lines, third defense pairing) that they're accustomed to.

The Wings have stayed in the hunt despite averaging 2.56 goals per game (22nd), with a power play that cashes in on just 17.5 percent of its chances (19th). It's hard to imagine that not improving with the return of Henrik Zetterberg, Danny Cleary, Niklas Kronwall and eventually Franzen.

Reasons to stress

Mike Babcock said it best. Will the Wings still work as hard and grind out games once all the talent comes back? They weren't exactly blowing teams away before the injuries started piling up. The offense wasn't clicking early and the defense was spotty. Both Zetterberg and Datsyuk got off to slow starts. There's no guarantee that the injured players will all come back and start lighting it up.

There will be another adjustment process. Lines will be re-drawn a few more times. Some players who had been contributing in the first half will lose their ice time and perhaps their roster spot. The chemistry will change.

Also, as good as Jimmy Howard has been, at some point Chris Osgood will have to be re-established as the No. 1 goalie. It's unlikely the Wings want to put their playoff hopes on the shoulders of a rookie goalie. Osgood has been the best playoff goalie in the league the last two years.

But the process of getting him re-established could be rough. What if Howard continues to keep his save percentage above .920? What if the Wings continue to roll with him in net? When does Osgood get a chance to get his rhythm back? What happens when Osgood comes back and maybe struggles for a game or two?

Teams have been torn apart by lesser issues.

Finally, which teams in the Western Conference are going to falter? Had the Wings not gone 3-0-1 in their last four, they would have found themselves seven or eight points out of the eighth spot, instead of three. All the teams ahead of them are on winning streaks right now. And with all the three-point games (one point for an overtime or shootout loss), leapfrogging teams is tough.

The Wings have given themselves no margin for error. There are no throwaway games from here on out.

Three stars of the first half

1. Jimmy Howard

The Wings were genuinely worried earlier this season that Howard wouldn't be able to cut it in the NHL. But when Chris Osgood was felled by the flu, Howard stepped in and quickly eased all doubt. He's 7-2-1 in his last 10 games, allowing more than two goals twice in that span. He has put himself in the conversation for the Calder Trophy (rookie of the year).

2. Todd Bertuzzi

After a slow start, Bertuzzi found his hands and his confidence. He's on a streak now of 12 points in 11 games, including eight goals. For a stretch there, he was the only Wing scoring. As Ken Holland said, he's playing his best hockey since his days in Vancouver.

3. Brad Stuart

One of just four players to play in all 41 games, Stuart has been the best and most consistent defenseman all season. He's been an absolute rock in all situations.

First-half disappointments

1. Ville Leino

The Wings had penciled Leino in as a guy who could produce 15 to 20 goals for them in a full season. They saw him as a third-line winger who could contribute on the second power-play unit. That hasn't happened. He spent most of the season in Babcock's doghouse. He was benched three times for his unwillingness or inability to compete on the ice. He was losing too many battles with the puck, getting snuffed out to often and not producing. Though he is showing signs of life, especially since being put back with Filppula, he's still skating on thin ice.

2. Jonathan Ericsson

Because he was so smooth and efficient in the playoffs last season, he was expected to just roll right through his first full NHL season. But as Ken Holland said, guys that do that generally end up in the Hall of Fame. Ericsson, before he got hurt, certainly took his lumps with costly giveaways and missed assignments. He has a minus-7 ranking, though he does have 10 assists. He's going to be an outstanding defenseman sooner than later, but for those who expected him to be the next Nick Lidstrom, this has been a reality check.

3. The power play

Yes, of course, the injuries have sucked the life out of it. You can't lose Franzen, Kronwall, Cleary and Zetterberg and expect your power play to be as bountiful as it was. But to have the kind of droughts the Wings have had this season (1 for 35 recently, 7 for 75 over the last 20 games) is mind-boggling. Even with one legitimate power-play line (Holmstrom, Datsyuk and Bertuzzi), you would expect more production than that.

First-half surprises

(Other than the obvious -- Jimmy Howard)

1. Tomas Holmstrom

People around the league were writing Holmstrom off after he scored just 14 goals in an injury-plagued season a year ago. But here he is, healthy and with 15 goals at the mid-point. Were it not for him, the Wings' power play would be even worse than it is.

2. Kris Draper

Coming off his worst season as a Wing, he, too, had been given up for dead. But Draper has been one of the most important players on the team this year -- for his leadership, of course, but also for his play. He has 13 points and is a plus-5. He has excelled playing the wing on a line with Patrick Eaves and Darren Helm.

3. Patrick Eaves

He's on his way to being another Red Wing reclamation project. His career was downsliding after a series of injuries and concussions. But he's found a niche here, playing on a checking line and on the team's vastly improved penalty-kill unit.

On the bubble

OK, what happens when everybody comes back? The Wings are going to have to make room for these seven players -- and possibly eight if Andreas Lilja can ever shake his head pain.

Certainly Doug Janik and Mattias Ritola will wind up back in Grand Rapids. Derek Meech will probably go back to being the seventh defenseman.

The tough decisions will come on the forward lines. Veterans Brad May and Kirk Maltby can be used as extra forwards. But younger guys like Drew Miller, Leino and maybe even Abdelkader might be heading back to Grand Rapids. Leino, though, is on a one-way contract, so he would have to clear waivers.

The team is in good shape salary cap-wise until Franzen ($4 million) comes back in February.

chris.mccosky@detnews.com">chris.mccosky@detnews.com (313) 222-1489