Lockout looms for NFL in 2011

John Niyo / The Detroit News

Ft. Lauderdale, Fla. -- If you're a fan of the NFL, read no further.

But if you're a realist, you'll understand: Money can't buy happiness, and even $8 billion in annual revenue might not be enough to save NFL owners and players from the doomsday scenario of a lockout in 2011.

DeMaurice Smith, executive director of the NFL Players' Association, said as much in an hourlong presentation and news conference Thursday at Super Bowl XLIV. Asked how serious the threat of a work stoppage after next season was, Smith -- a former high-powered trial lawyer elected to his current post last March -- paused for dramatic effect before answering.

"On a scale of one to 10," he said, "it's a 14."

And after Smith and Titans center Kevin Mawae, the NFLPA president, fired more volleys Thursday in this war of words, don't count on that danger level subsiding this week. Commissioner Roger Goodell is scheduled to make his annual league address today, and then Smith is set to address the league owners Saturday before they convene a rare Super Bowl session in Miami.

To date, there have been 11 negotiating sessions between the league and the union on a new collective bargaining agreement. But quantity certainly hasn't meant quality, with little -- if any -- progress.

"You could have 50 meetings, but they have to be productive at some point," Goodell told SIRIUS NFL Radio on Thursday. "So it's not about how many meetings you have, and I think that's part of the frustration. ... The idea here is to get some productive dialogue that leads to an agreement, and that's what we should all be focusing on."

Owners voted in the spring of 2008 to opt out of the current labor deal after the 2010 season, and Goodell acknowledged last weekend it's "virtually certain" the NFL will operate without a salary cap in 2010 as part of that labor limbo.

Adding to the collective angst is the fact both sides have been posturing and bracing for a shutdown for quite some time, not unlike the NHL and its union prior to that league's 2004-05 lockout.

In fact, Smith is quick to point out that "the NFL hired as their lead negotiator the same person who locked out hockey." That would be Bob Batterman, hired by the league in 2008 as outside counsel for labor.

The union has raised annual dues for its membership and asked players to save 25 percent of their salaries this season and next to provide financial stability in case of a work stoppage. The league, meanwhile, has negotiated TV contract extensions that effectively serve as lockout insurance for the owners.

"When you put in for the first time a guarantee that there will be almost $5 billion to not play football," Smith said of the TV deals, "what else can you consider it to be?"

Added Smith: "Look, I'm not afforded the luxury of trying to guess. Our job is to look at the facts. And when you look at every step that has occurred since 2007, is it more of a preparation to play football or more of a preparation to not play football?"

Chief among the issues is the split of league revenues. Owners say player salaries eat up 60 percent of the pie, and with escalating costs and stadium debt, they're insisting on major changes.

Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti on Wednesday said, "I've got partners out there right now whose teams are making less money than their linebackers." He also called the collective bargaining agreement "a bad deal that puts us in the unenviable position of this thing ending in a lockout as opposed to a strike."

The union continues to call for the league to open its books to prove the financial losses.

And for now, at least, the players stand defiant.

"There's gonna have to be some give and some take, not just taking from one side all the way," Mawae said, adding, "Ask the players, and they're all gonna say the same thing: We're one team and we're sticking together."

Making changes

Some effects of an uncapped NFL season in 2010:

• Players would need six years in the league before becoming unrestricted free agents rather than four. This includes plenty of stars among the 212 players who would be impacted, including Shawne Merriman, Miles Austin, Elvis Dumervil, Owen Daniels, Brandon Marshall and DeMeco Ryans. They will become restricted free agents, meaning their current club will have the right to match an offer or be compensated for losing them. Any player with three, four or five years in the league whose contract is up would become a restricted free agent.

• There would be no salary floor or salary ceiling. In 2009, the cap was $128 million and the floor was $111 million.

• Two players on each team, instead of one, would get a transition tag. A transition player must be offered at least the average of the top 10 salaries for his position during the previous season, or 120 percent of the player's previous year's salary, whichever is greater.

• The eight clubs that made the divisional round this year (New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, Arizona, Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore and the New York Jets) will have limits on signing unrestricted free agents. Called the Final Eight Plan, the number of players those teams lose to free agency will determine how many they can sign from other clubs. The Colts, Jets, Vikings and Saints will have other obstructions.

• A supplemental revenue-sharing plan will be scrapped by the league, which says about $100 million is involved; the union claims it's closer to $200 million. That program involves the top 15 teams by revenue placing funds into a pool from which many of the lower income clubs can draw. It does not include television money or box office revenues. Nine franchises qualified to receive funds last year, although the league has not identified them.

• The 32 teams would be relieved of their obligation to fund numerous player benefit programs, including 401Ks, player annuity, severance pay, and tuition assistance. That would be a cost reduction of more than $7 million per club.