Poll: Snyder keeps lead on Bernero, with few undecided

Lansing -- Republican Rick Snyder has maintained the lead he built after the August primaries with a 20.3 percentage point cushion over Democratic opponent Virg Bernero and a shrinking pool of undecided voters.

Snyder is ahead of the Lansing mayor 56.2 percent to 35.9 percent among likely November general election voters, according to a Detroit News/Local 4 WDIV poll released Thursday.

The Ann Arbor businessman's margin is roughly the same as he had in a Detroit News/Local 4 WDIV poll taken just days after the primary. Voters seem to be making up their minds early as the number of undecideds has fallen from 17.8 percent in August to 7.5 percent today.

"I think (Bernero) is in increasingly bad shape -- I was shocked to find only 7.5 percent undecided," said Richard Czuba, president of Glengariff Group Inc., which conducted telephone interviews of 600 people statewide Tuesday and Wednesday. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"People are making up their minds already," he said. "At this stage, Bernero has to peel people away that have already decided to vote for Snyder -- that's a hard challenge for any candidate."

This week's poll was the first since the political parties held their state conventions and the candidates chose their running mates. Neither event appeared to result in significant changes in the numbers.

More than 84 percent of those polled said Bernero's choice of Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence had no impact on their choice for governor and more than 87 percent said the same about Snyder's choice of state Rep. Brian Calley of Portland.

Bernero spokesman Cullen Schwarz said voters who favor Snyder have plenty of time to change their minds. Experts have predicted Snyder's margin will narrow, he noted.

"Virg was down by a similar margin in the primary and won in a landslide," Schwarz said. "Voters are just beginning to learn more about Snyder's real record of outsourcing jobs and comparing that to Virg's record of creating jobs, reforming government and balancing budgets in Lansing."

Among independents, 54.7 percent said they definitely or probably would vote for Snyder, or are leaning toward the Republican, while 25 percent said the same about Bernero.

Snyder reacted cautiously Thursday to the poll results.

"It's always good to get positive feedback," Snyder said. "But I take it as awfully premature to draw conclusions.

"We're just going to continue working hard through Nov. 2."

Michigan Republican Party Chairman Ron Weiser said the results "reflect the fact that people are tired of what's happened over eight years and they're looking for change."

Trend favors Republicans

Democrats lag from the top to the bottom of the ticket, the poll results show. Republicans are leading in the contests for secretary of state and attorney general, as well as in the Supreme Court races.

"It's a reflection of the national trend where independents have expressed relatively high disapproval of the Obama administration and are leaning toward voting Republican this year," said Craig Ruff, senior fellow at Public Sector Consultants in Lansing. "In all kinds of states, the independents are splitting for the Republicans."

Just 4.3 percent of Democrats surveyed remain undecided, as are 1.5 percent of Republicans. Among independents, 16.2 percent are undecided.

"That's a very small number undecided at this stage of the game -- I've seen polling going into election night with 7 percent undecided," Ruff said. "The sides are hardening, people are starting to lock in, and they're locking in earlier than normal."

Bernero leads Snyder 81.6 percent to 10.5 percent in Detroit, but he trails Snyder in every other region of the state. And while Snyder appears to have locked in his base, Bernero is struggling with key Democratic constituencies.

Snyder would capture the vote of 94.6 percent of Republicans polled, 69.8 percent of abortion opponents and 82.6 percent of tea party supporters.

If they voted today, 83.3 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Bernero. Among abortion rights advocates, 49.5 percent said they would vote for Bernero, and 42.6 percent for Snyder.

Bernero is losing the vote among union households, with 44 percent saying they would vote for Bernero, compared to 48.1 percent for Snyder.

"All (Bernero) can do at this point is attack, attack, attack -- because he's got to dent Rick Snyder's very large popularity margin," Czuba said.

"Clearly one of the reasons he's popular is he's positioned himself very well with independents, obviously by talking about the jobs issue, which is the No. 1 issue."

Likability a factor

Some experts have said voters may find Snyder more likable than Bernero, who's been called "America's angriest mayor." That's true of Heidi Farmer, 30, of Grayling who said she normally votes Democratic, but is leaning toward Snyder.

"Snyder seems more enthused about (the governor's job), more ready to jump in," said Farmer, a member of the Grayling City Council. "Virg Bernero always looks tired; he sounds a little tired when he speaks.

"They both got good ideas. It could be (Snyder) just comes off as more likable."

Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, said it's early in the campaign, and Bernero has a chance to turn things around. But Ballenger said, Bernero must openly challenge Snyder, who faced little scrutiny during his Republican primary campaign.

"There's still two months to go, and the Democrats just launched their big attack ads against Snyder this week," Ballenger said of a TV advertisement launched Thursday by the Michigan Democratic Party that focuses on charges of outsourcing by Snyder during his time at Gateway computers.

Neither campaign has rolled out its ads yet, but money will be an issue for expensive statewide buys. According to post-primary campaign finance filings, Snyder has about $500,000 cash on hand while Bernero has less than $30,000.

"The important thing is they've got to tear Snyder down," Ballenger said. "Nobody laid a glove on Snyder in the primary -- they didn't really go after him on outsourcing, and if they did, it was very light.

"Everybody's waiting to see if this is a replay of 2006 where (Gov. Jennifer) Granholm just tore into (Republican gubernatorial nominee Dick) DeVos over outsourcing jobs, and it worked."

Experts, including Ballenger, said it's crucial that Bernero engage Snyder in debates to give voters a chance to see the candidates side by side -- though they agree Snyder has nothing to gain, and a lot to lose, if he participates.

Bernero has challenged Snyder to eight debates, to be scheduled through late October. Snyder has said he will participate in no more than three, and he wants them to happen in the next few weeks. As of late Thursday, no agreement on debates had been announced by their campaign teams.

"Obviously Bernero will want to make (outsourcing) a major portion of the debates," Ballenger said. "(But) Bernero might have to think twice about how far they push Snyder at this point, because they don't want to anger him to the point where he says 'That's it -- I'm not going to debate you.' "

kbouffard@detnews.com">kbouffard@detnews.com (517) 371-3660 Staff Writer Paul Egan contributed.