Fed rate increase remains unlikely
Washington — Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Tuesday that the U.S. economy is making steady progress, but that for now the Fed is will remain patient about raising interest rates because the job market is still healing and inflation is too low.
In her semiannual economic report to Congress, Yellen sought to explain how the Fed would begin raising rates from lows near zero and what it would do to prepare financial markets. Its continuing use of the word “patient” means a rate hike is unlikely for at least the next two meetings, she said.
But even when the Fed eventually drops the use of “patient,” Yellen said that will not necessarily translate to an imminent rate increase. Rather, it will indicate that the Fed can start considering rate hikes flexibly on a “meeting-by-meeting basis.”
Her remarks come at a delicate time for the Fed. After winning praise for how she handled her first year as head of the central bank, Yellen is facing a tougher challenge this year. She must navigate a transition from record-low interest rates to a period when the Fed will start raising rates while trying to keep financial markets calm and maintain economic growth.
To some private economists, Yellen appeared to be positioning the Fed for a rate hike in June.
Yellen’s upbeat assessment of growth and the labor market, as well as her comments on inflation, are “a clear sign that March is very much in play for dropping ‘patient’ and, hence that June is still in play for the first hike,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Other economists, however, forecast that a rate hike won’t happen until the second half of the year or later.
Inflation will “worrisomely” continue to weaken in the months ahead, “making liftoff a late-summer event,” said Gregory Michael, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Yellen’s reiteration of the Fed’s patience bolstered Wall Street. Major U.S. stock indexes were higher, with the Dow Jones industrial average up 79 points, or 0.4 percent, to 18,196 in midday trading.
As expected, Yellen stuck closely to the views revealed by the minutes of the Fed’s Jan. 27-28 meeting, in which Fed officials recognized that the economy was finally gaining momentum nearly six years after the country began to emerge from the worst recession since the 1930s. Yet it signaled that it was in no hurry to raise interest rates.
But Republicans, who now control Congress, have complained that the Fed’s cautious approach is fueling the risk that inflation could accelerate to worrisome levels in the future, forcing it to push rates up more quickly.
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby, R-Alabama, said in his opening remarks that a prolonged delay in raising rates “could lead to a more painful correction down the road.”
Shelby was also critical of what he described as secrecy at the Fed.
“What the (Fed) is thinking and how they are analyzing this very difficult problem set remains a mystery,” Shelby told Yellen. “I would argue … that there is an even greater need now for additional oversight by Congress and further reforms” of the Fed.
Conservative Republicans in both the House and Senate have been pushing for legislation that would grant the Government Accountability Office the power to audit the central bank’s decisions on monetary policy. Yellen and other Fed officials have opposed the proposal, saying it could compromise the Fed’s independence.
The bill would “politicize monetary policy and bring … political pressures to bear on the Fed,” Yellen said, repeating her staunch opposition to the bill.
In her testimony, Yellen delivered a relatively sunny summary of the economy. Since the Fed’s last report in July, the job market has improved “along many dimensions.” She noted that the unemployment rate is down to 5.7 percent from a high of 10 percent in late 2009. Long-term unemployment has declined substantially and fewer workers are reporting that they can only find part-time work, she said.
But balanced against those improvements, Yellen said that “too many Americans remain unemployed or underemployed, wage growth is still sluggish and inflation remains well below our longer-run objective.”
One of the Fed’s primary goals is stable prices, which it defines as inflation rising at 2 percent annually. But for more than two years, inflation has been rising well below that level and has retreated further from the Fed’s target in recent months.