Tesla shares could rise 30% next year on China demand, analyst says

Beth Mellor

 Tesla Inc. is in a strong position heading into 2022, with catalysts including robust Chinese demand and new factory openings in the U.S. and Germany, according to Wedbush Securities.

Shares in the electric-vehicle maker could gain nearly 30% over the next 12 months, analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a note for the Los Angeles-based investment firm. He expects component shortages to ease next year, allowing Tesla to better meet growing demand in China, while new factories in Texas and Berlin should alleviate global production bottlenecks.

A Tesla Model Y is displayed in a production hall of the Tesla Gigafactory in Germany.

“The linchpin to the overall bull thesis on Tesla remains China, which we estimate will represent 40% of deliveries for the EV maker in 2022,” Ives said, reiterating his outperform rating and $1,400 price target. 

Tuesday, the stock closed down 0.5% to $1,088.47, breaking a four-day rally.

Tesla shares have had a stellar year, with a 55% gain through Monday’s close that propelled the company’s market value above $1 trillion. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has been offloading stock since November, and said on Twitter last week that he is “almost done” with a target of reducing his stake by 10%.

Argus Research boosted its price target for Tesla’s stock on Tuesday, lifting it to $1,313 from $1,010 and reaffirming a buy rating. It sees the EV-maker as the industry’s “undisputed leader,” even in the face of “growing competition.” 

Wedbush’s Ives estimates that by the end of 2022 Tesla will have capacity to produce about 2 million cars a year, up from around 1 million today. 

“Right now Tesla has a high-class problem of demand outstripping supply,” he said.

— With assistance by Breanna Bradham, and Philip Sanders