Graham: Impress your friends with these super accurate Oscar predictions

Who's in and who's out of the major Academy Awards races, ahead of Tuesday's nominations

Adam Graham
The Detroit News
Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga in "A Star is Born."

The high point of awards season arrives Tuesday morning when nominations for this year's Academy Awards are announced, and we'll finally know who's in and who's out of the year's biggest awards show. 

The Golden Globes, the Critic's Choice Awards, the various guilds and critical groups have all had their say. But this, right here, is absolutely, positively, exactly how Tuesday's nominations will shake out ... unless, of course, it's not, in which case, hey, I tried. Hollywood, am I right? 

The envelopes, please ...:

Best Picture: "A Star is Born," "Roma," "The Favourite," "Green Book," "Black Panther," "Vice," "Bohemian Rhapsody," "If Beale Street Could Talk," "BlacKkKlansman"

Yes, that's only nine nominees, but since the Academy Awards expanded its Best Picture field to 10 potential nominees, there have only been two instances where all 10 slots have been utilized. This leaves "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" "First Man," "A Quiet Place," "Mary Poppins Returns," "First Reformed," "Crazy Rich Asians," "Eighth Grade" and "Widows" on the outside looking in, while audience faves "Black Panther" (which grossed $700 million in North American theaters) and "A Star is Born" ($203 million) duke it out for the big prize.  

Best Actor: Christian Bale, "Vice"; Viggo Mortensen, "Green Book"; Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"; Bradley Cooper, "A Star is Born"; John David Washington, "BlacKkKlansman"

Washington joining the fray pushes out "First Reformed's" Ethan Hawke, who earned his first Academy Award nomination acting with Washington's father in "Training Day." Also left out in the cold: Willem Dafoe for his stirring, underseen performance in "At Eternity's Gate" and Robert Redford for his potential swan song from screen acting in "Old Man & the Gun." Currently, it's Bale's award to lose, which would make him a two-time winner, following his Best Supporting Actor win for "The Fighter." 

Best Actress: Lady Gaga, "A Star is Born"; Glenn Close, "The Wife"; Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"; Yalitza Aparicio, "Roma"; Melissa McCarthy, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

Toni Collette may call a hex on Academy voters heads for leaving her out of this category, which has come down to a two-actress race between Gaga and Close, with Close having the early edge. Other also-rans include "Mary Poppins Returns'" Emily Blunt, "Widows'" Viola Davis and "Destroyer's" Nicole Kidman. 

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"; Sam Elliott, "A Star is Born"; Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"; Michael B. Jordan, "Black Panther"; Timothée Chalamet, "Beautiful Boy"

There's only room for one Sam, and Elliott (who will be picking up his first Oscar nomination) edges out Sam Rockwell's performance as George W. Bush in "Vice." (Don't feel too bad for Rockwell, he won this category last year for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.") Rockwell's "Vice" costar, Steve Carell, is also out of luck, as are "Widows' " Daniel Kaluuya and "BlacKkKlansman's" Adam Driver. As for winners, "Green Book's" Ali is the current favorite to win, but don't count out a sympathy vote for first-timer Elliott.  

Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"; Emma Stone, "The Favourite"; Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite"; Amy Adams, "Vice"; Claire Foy, "First Man" 

When a movie titled "First Man" sees its only major nomination go to a woman: priceless. But Foy's inclusion here muscles out "Crazy Rich Asians' " Michelle Yeoh and "Green Book's" Linda Cardellini. Stone and Weisz can pretend they're "Favourites" all they like; this award is right now Regina King's to lose.