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Well, it looks like the only white fluffy flakes Metro Detroit will see on Christmas morning will be in a snow globe.

The National Weather Service is predicting a less than 10 percent chance of snow on Dec. 25, making it a “brown Christmas” for southeastern Michigan. The weather service defines a brown Christmas as being a trace or less of snow on the ground as of 7 a.m. Christmas morning.

“Based on 115 years of data, Detroit has about a 47 percent chance of having a white Christmas in any given year,” said meteorologist Rich Pollman, working out of the White Lake Township station. “I don’t want to say our chances are zero this year, but they are going to be less than 10 percent.”

If anything, the metro area will see a wet and warm Christmas day with a warm front moving through the area on Christmas Eve.

“We’ll start warming up next week with multiple days in the 50s,” Pollman said. “Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will be mostly, if not all, rain. We have no real snow in the forecast. “

The odds of not having a white Christmas aren’t isolated just to southeastern Michigan. Here are the chances that various cities Up North will have a brown Christmas.

Gaylord has a 6 percent chance of a brown Christmas. Their last brown Christmas occurred in 2006 and has occurred 14 times since 1950.

Traverse City has an 18 percent chance of a BC. TC’s last BC was in 2014 and has occurred 16 times since 1930.

Alpena has a 22 percent chance with the last BC occurring in 2014. Alpena has had 19 BCs since 1930.

Houghton Lake has a 16 percent chance of a BC. Their last BC was in 2011 and it has happened 15 previous times since 1919.

Sault Ste. Marie has only a 3 percent chance of a brown Christmas. The last one was in 2006 and it has occurred four times since 1888.

TGreenwood@detroitnews.com

(313) 222-2023

Extended forecast

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and 47.

Tuesday night: Cloudy and 35.

Wednesday: There is a 30 percent chance of showers after noon with a high of 50.

Wednesday night: There is a 30 percent chance of rain with a low of 35.

Thursday: Partly sunny and 40 with wind gusts of up to 21 mph.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with a low of about 27 .

Friday: There is a 50 percent chance of snow showers with a high of about 32.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy and 32.

Saturday: Sunny and 32.

Saturday night: Cloudy and 23.

Sunday: Sunny and 38.

Sunday night: Cloudy and 29.

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