If the 2020 election is decided on the economy, historic trends suggest that President Donald Trump would win by 5 percentage points, according to a new analysis by the economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics.

“A record-low unemployment rate, subdued inflation and only moderately cooler income growth will favor the incumbent party despite some party fatigue,” according to the analysis. Trump could even survive a slight downturn, it concludes.

Oxford Economics reached that conclusion based on a model by Ray Fair of Yale University, who has studied the economic factors that best predict presidential elections dating to 1916.

But the analysis carries a big caveat: “Non-economic factors are likely to play an outsized role in this election.” Those factors include the impeachment inquiry announced by House Democrats and Trump’s likability. The model also doesn’t take the Electoral College vote into account.

Biden Leads in North Carolina Poll (12:34 p.m.)

Joe Biden has a strong foothold in North Carolina, with a double-digit lead over the rest of the Democratic field thanks to overwhelming support from black voters, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released Wednesday.

The finding is good news for Biden, who is either tied with or trailing Elizabeth Warren nationally and in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Among all likely Democratic voters in the state, Biden tops the field with 39%, while Warren had 22%. They were followed by Pete Buttigieg, who had 9%, and Bernie Sanders, who had 6%. While white voters prefer Warren over Biden 31% to 26%, Biden has 63% support among black voters, compared with 3% for Warren.

Biden’s two strongest states are now North and South Carolina, where his black support pushes him into a solid lead.

Still, Warren has room to expand her support from black voters in North Carolina, said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. She has a 69% favorable rating with 9% seeing her as unfavorable. Biden has an 84% favorable rating with 6% viewing him as unfavorable. – Emma Kinery

Coming Up

The Human Rights Campaign Foundation will host a town hall at the University of California at Los Angeles devoted to LGBTQ issues on Friday. Candidates scheduled to attend are: Warren Cory Booker, Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, Julin Castro and Tom Steyer. Sanders, who has been recovering from a heart attack, also is scheduled to appear, but his campaign hasn’t said whether he still plans to attend.

The fourth Democratic debate is scheduled for Oct. 15th at Otterbein University in Westerville, Ohio. Twelve candidates are slated to take part: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Booker, Buttigieg, Castro, Harris, Klobuchar and O’Rourke, as well as Tulsi Gabbard, Steyer and Andrew Yang.

The United Food and Commercial Workers union will host forums in Iowa with Democratic presidential candidates on Oct. 13. Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Harris and Michael Bennet have confirmed that they will attend.

With assistance from Emma Kinery.

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