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Canada’s Liberals have slight edge heading into Monday’s election

Natalie Obiko Pearson
Bloomberg News

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party edged ahead with a two-point lead over its Conservative rival, within the margin of error, according to the latest poll conducted days before Monday’s election.

A survey by Nanos Research found 32.6% of respondents favored the Liberals as their top choice versus 30.3% favoring the Conservative Party led by Andrew Scheer. The New Democratic Party was third with 18.4% support.

Canadians vote on Monday in what’s expected to be one of the closest races in the nation’s history. The most likely scenario is a government that doesn’t command an absolute majority in its own right and will need to seek the support of smaller parties.

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau holds a rally in Milton, Ontario, Canada, on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2019.

The Nanos survey showed the separatist Bloc Quebecois gaining support in the French-speaking province. If that trend continues, the party “might be a more significant power in parliament,” Nik Nanos, head of the polling operation, said in a tweet Saturday.

The survey was based on a three-day rolling sample, taken Oct. 16-18, of telephone interviews with 1,200 eligible voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.