Michigan's U.S. Senate race starts as a 'toss-up,' poll finds

The closely watched race for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat is starting the election year as a "toss-up," with no candidate in command of a significant lead and a slew of independent voters who are undecided, a new statewide poll shows.

A survey of 600 likely Michigan voters commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV (Channel 4) found respondents essentially split when the Democratic frontrunner, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, is matched against three leading Republican contenders ― former Detroit police Chief James Craig and former U.S. Reps. Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer ― in hypothetical head-to-head races.

"All three are essentially a toss-up. We see James Craig like 2 points ahead of Slotkin at this stage, simply because of I think increased name ID out of southeast Michigan," said pollster Richard Czuba of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group, which conducted the survey. "But we see with the other two that it's dead even. They're all within the margin of error."

The poll, conducted Jan. 2-6, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Craig leads Slotkin 38% to 36%, with 27% of likely general election voters saying they're undecided, according to The News/WDIV poll.

In a matchup between Slotkin and Rogers, a former seven-term congressman from Brighton, the race is almost even, with Slotkin at 38% to Rogers' 37% and 25% undecided.

Pollsters found a Slotkin race against Meijer was also tied, with both candidates at 36% and 28% of voters undecided.

The survey's generic ballot test for the U.S. Senate race had Democrats with a narrow 2.7-percentage point lead of 37.4% to 34.7%, with 23.5% of voters saying they're undecided or that it would depend on the candidate on the ballot.

"This U.S. Senate race right now looks exactly as I would expect an open U.S. Senate race in Michigan to look at this stage ― some top-tier names who are starting to build their name ID on a statewide basis," Czuba said.

"It's those independents who are undecided ― a huge bloc of independents sitting out there. That's exactly what we would expect: (Candidates) go win your nomination and then make a race for the center."

Slotkin, of Holly, is a former top Pentagon official serving her third term in Congress representing a swing district.

Craig, of Detroit, spent eight years as Detroit's police chief before retiring in 2021 and mounting a campaign for governor in 2022 before getting bounced from the August primary ballot that year over nominating signatures that were rife with fraud.

Rogers, of Brighton, represented a mid-Michigan congressional district between 2001 and 2015 and was the House Intelligence Committee chairman from 2011-15.

Meijer, of Grand Rapids Township, is an Army veteran who represented the Grand Rapids area in Congress for one term before losing his 2022 GOP primary to John Gibbs. He is the great-grandson of Meijer supermarket founder Hendrik Meijer.

'It's so early'

Michigan has a Senate seat up for grabs this year because U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Lansing, decided not to run for another six-year term. The contest in the battleground state is expected to be expensive and competitive and could help decide which party controls the narrowly divided Senate in 2025. Democrats currently hold a slim majority.

Glengariff Group only tested head-to-head matchups between Slotkin and the three Republican politicians in a general election poll largely focused on the presidential race in Michigan.

"Chief James Craig is leading this race because of his authenticity and successful career in law enforcement,” said Ted Goodman, a senior adviser to Craig. “While other candidates in this race will brag about their support from the permanent Washington political class and their deep-pocketed donors who they will have to answer to, Chief James Craig can't be bought and won't be told what to do by anyone other than the people of Michigan.”

Other Democrats running in the Senate primary include actor and author Hill Harper of Detroit, businessman Nasser Beydoun of Dearborn, former state Rep. Leslie Love of Detroit and attorney Zack Burns of Ann Arbor. The Republican candidates include State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, attorney Alexandria Taylor and businessman Michael Hoover of Laingsburg.

Multiple poll respondents interviewed this week by The News said they were unfamiliar with the Senate candidates running and not paying attention to the race whatsoever.

"It’s so early in the game," said Alex Korte, 34, of Grand Rapids, a self-described independent voter who participated in the survey.

Korte recognized two names on the candidate list: Meijer was his Grand Rapids-area congressman for a term before losing the Republican primary in 2022. And Korte met Slotkin when he was stationed at the U.S. Capitol as a member of the Michigan National Guard in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.

"The Meijer family is kind of a staple in the area, and they have a lot of recognition and goodwill off the bat. They're very popular. ... He’s prior military, which kind of gives me more of an affinity for him," said Korte, whose deployments include time in Afghanistan.

"But we look more skeptically to CIA folks," added Korte, a reference to Slotkin, a former CIA analyst. "That’s the one thing I don’t like about her, just because you never really know what you’re getting with people who work for the intelligence agencies."

Korte said he'd lean toward voting for Meijer, with the caveat that he's not yet explored the candidates' policy positions.

Jim Potter, 61, a Republican and open road truck driver living in Lowell, said he supported Craig when he ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2022 and would likely support him again for Senate.

"I really like him. I watched a couple of his speeches. He’s a really good conservative, good on law and order, and I agree in the same principles he does," said Potter, who also participated in the poll.

Potter also knew of Meijer, saying his wife, a teacher, had Meijer in class. But the other candidates were unfamiliar names.

"Everybody’s got work to do with identifying their names with potential voters," Oakland University political scientist Dave Dulio said about the candidates. "Even Slotkin is under 50%. That’s a lot of people to introduce yourself to."

The survey found Slotkin is starting out the year with the largest name identification at 45% (18% favorable to 11% unfavorable), though about 54% of those surveyed having not heard of her.

Czuba highlighted Slotkin's 53% name ID among the subcategory of base Democratic voters, with about 36% favorable to 3% unfavorable, according to the survey.

“Since the day we launched this campaign, we’ve said that Michigan’s Senate race would be one of the most competitive and consequential in the country,” Slotkin spokesman Austin Cook said. “We’ve seen incredible support and enthusiasm as Elissa has met voters across the state, and we’re building a strong organization to win in November.”

Slotkin's highest-profile opponent in the Democratic primary is Harper of Detroit, who has 14% name ID (6% favorable to 2% unfavorable). A large segment, 85% of survey respondents, had not heard of Harper.

"He has a huge hill to climb against Slotkin," Czuba said. "I know people say, 'Oh, you can just buy your name ID.' Well, in this environment, it's harder and harder and more and more expensive."

Harper campaign spokesman Eric Fuller said the poll shows the race is "wide open" with eight months until the Aug. 6 primary.

"Most actual voters in Michigan haven't picked their candidate, even if it seems D.C. insiders have," Fuller said. "We're doing the daily work of listening to and connecting with voters all across Michigan, and our people-powered vision for progress and unity is gaining ground. Voters are recognizing that Hill Harper is a truly authentic voice who will fight for all Michiganders — and it's why we're confident we will emerge victorious in this historic election."

Shantel Roberts, 35, a salesperson and Democrat in Novi said she'd likely vote for Slotkin, whom she previously supported when she lived in Slotkin's U.S. House district, in part, because of her national security background.

"I also think she’s a woman of the people — down to earth. I heard her speak at an MLK lunch once. I just liked that she is real. Many times politicians are afraid to offend, and she wasn’t," said Roberts, who took part in the survey.

"I do like Hill Harper. But one thing about Elissa Slotkin was she wanted to abolish the death penalty. I do like him, too. ... He’s a really intelligent guy. That is tough. But I’d be still leaning toward Slotkin."

If she's the nominee, Slotkin could feel the drag of President Joe Biden's unpopularity among Michigan voters, with his trailing former President Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in the same Glengariff survey. Republicans will likely try to tie Slotkin to the unpopular Democratic president, whom only 17% of poll respondents said deserved another term leading the country. 

"In terms of Biden drag, if I’m the Slotkin campaign, I’m worried about that, and I’m worried about turnout," said Dulio, noting she benefited from a healthy turnout among young voters in her House district that is home to Michigan State University.

"If young people continue to doubt Biden and seem to either oppose him or just not support him, that’s a concern for the Slotkin campaign because it’s a big part of the Democratic coalition these days."

GOP race 'wide open'

Republicans Craig, Rogers and Meijer are in similar territory on name identification.

Craig had 38% name identification (10% favorable and 9% unfavorable); Rogers had 32% name ID (7% favorable and 4% unfavorable); and Meijer had 35% name ID (split 8% favorable and 8% unfavorable), the survey found.

Meijer, however, is underwater with base GOP voters likely to vote in the Republican primary election — probably linked to his 2021 vote to impeach then-President Trump after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Among this group of voters, he has 34% name ID, breaking 6% favorable to 12% unfavorable.

"But what is interesting is that when you do the head-to-heads, that doesn't come through. This idea that Pete Meijer was anti-Trump is right now held by a very narrow band of people," Czuba said.

"That is likely to change when Donald Trump makes his entrance into this race. But for right now, at the start of this race, he is on par with both Rogers and James Craig."

Rogers spent 20 years in elected office before retiring from Congress in 2015. His campaign noted he's the only Republican candidate in the field who hasn't lost an election.

"Between the lawlessness at the border and massive increase in prices at the hands of Joe Biden and Elissa Slotkin, Michiganders are sick and tired of their complete and utter failures," Rogers spokesman Chris Gustafson said.

"Mike Rogers is committed to getting America back on track, meeting with voters all across Michigan, and has already collected the signatures required to get on the ballot."

GOP consultant Scott Greenlee, a senior adviser to Meijer, said none of the poll numbers surprised him. At this stage, none of the candidates have spent big money on getting their message out or broadcast ads about legislation or how they'll conduct themselves in office, Greenlee noted.

"These tell me that Peter is in the spot we thought he’d be in, and we look forward to getting our messaging out to the voters for the Republican primary," Greenlee said. "We’re excited to see where these numbers go as we move toward August."

The latest GOP candidate to enter the race, businessman Sandy Pensler of Grosse Pointe Park, is trailing the other top Republicans in name identification, despite having run for Senate in 2018.

His name ID stands at nearly 15% (3% favorable to 2% unfavorable), with 85% of poll respondents having not heard of him.

Pensler, however, is planning to self-fund some of his campaign. Pensler consultant Stu Sandler said the poll numbers should be "terrifying" for the career politicians in the running, calling it a "wide open" race.

"CNN Mike Rogers and impeachment Peter Meijer are both Never Trump candidates while Sandy is the only Trump candidate who has the resources and organization to win the primary," Sandler said, referring to Rogers' work as a CNN analyst after he left Congress.

"Pensler will begin to get the word out to Republican primary voters soon and will be in the strongest position to win this race."

Rogers endorsed Trump's reelection campaign earlier this week.

mburke@detroitnews.com