Democrat Slotkin leads GOP Senate hopefuls, but one matchup is tight, poll finds

A new poll shows the race for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat remains a tossup, with Democratic frontrunner U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin holding a slight edge over Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup that's with the survey's margin of error.

Slotkin, a three-term congresswoman from Holly, led by 3 percentage points with 40% to 37% for Rogers, a former seven-term lawmaker from Brighton, but that's within the margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points. Another 23% of respondents were undecided.

The survey of 600 registered Michigan voters was conducted April 24-25 and commissioned by the Detroit Regional Chamber ahead of the Mackinac Policy Conference later this month where Senate candidates are scheduled to debate May 30.

"To me the race looks like a classic open Michigan Senate seat race and exactly what you’d expect to see at this stage: Very close, slight lead for a Democrat and, yet, this is all going to get decided down the middle," said pollster Richard Czuba of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group, which conducted the survey.

"Far more than the presidential race, the Senate race is going to be fought over the middle."

Slotkin's lead widened when paired against other Republican candidates in hypothetical matchups. She led businessman Sandy Pensler of Grosse Pointe Park by nearly 7 percentage points, 41% to 34% with 26% of respondents undecided.

Slotkin also was ahead of former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash of Cascade Township, a conservative libertarian, by nearly 8 percentage points, or 41% to 34% with rounded numbers, with 25% undecided. She bested Republican former U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer of the Grand Rapids area 41% to 35% with 24% of respondents undecided, according to the survey. Meijer has since dropped out of the race.

Rogers held narrow leads over other Democratic primary candidates in hypothetical matchups, also within the 4-point margin of error. Rogers led Democrat Hill Harper of Detroit by 1.4 percentage points, 38% to Harper's 36% when rounded, with 26% undecided.

Rogers also led Dearborn businessman Nasser Beydoun by 3 percentage points ― Rogers had 39% and Beydoun 36%, with 25% undecided.

Name ID helps shape race

Slotkin had the strongest name identification at 45% with a 2-1 margin over the other Democratic contenders. Her name ID broke 20% favorable, 11% unfavorable, 15% with no opinion and 53% having never heard of her. Slotkin is a former top Pentagon official in her third term representing a mid-Michigan swing district in the U.S. House.

Harper's name familiarity came in at 18.5%, with 8% favorable, 2% unfavorable and 78% not knowing who he is. Harper, an actor and author, stars in the ABC drama "The Good Doctor" and owns the Roasting Plant, a downtown Detroit coffee shop.

"The energy in this primary is unmistakably with Hill Harper. His values resonate with Michigan's Democratic voters more than any other candidate. Remember, polls don't vote — people do," Harper said in a statement. "We're energized by the strong grassroots support for our campaign, which is truly powered by the people."

Beydoun's name identification was at 18%, with 4% favorable, 4% unfavorable, and 80% of respondents who never heard of him.

Slotkin's name ID among base Democratic voters was 56%, Harper's at 25% and Beydoun's at 16%, according to the poll.

"Slotkin's done a really good job with the party base voters. The party loves her. She's running against two candidates who have no name ID, and it appears no money, so she is clearly formidable here," Czuba said.

"Rogers has work to do on name ID, and it will be interesting how nasty this gets on the Republican side, because that's going to damage whoever the nominee is."

The Republican primary field came in much closer together on name ID than the Democrats, according to the poll. Rogers hit 37% name familiarity, breaking 7% favorable, 10% unfavorable, 21% with no opinion and 60% having never heard of him. Rogers represented a mid-Michigan congressional district between 2001 and 2015 and chaired the House Intelligence Committee.

'This race is just heating up'

"This race is just heating up, and voters all across Michigan can expect to learn more about Elissa Slotkin’s egregious ties to China and failure to stand up for America and our allies," Rogers spokesman Chris Gustafson said. "Mike Rogers has a plan to Get America Back on Track and help working families, and he’ll be the clear choice for Michiganders come November.”

Meijer served one term in Congress, losing the GOP primary election in 2022 after voting to impeach former President Donald Trump in January 2021 following the Jan. 6 riots at the U.S. Capitol. His name ID ranked just behind Rogers at 36% with 8% favorable and 11% unfavorable and 61% having never heard of him.

Amash spent a decade in Congress from 2011-21 representing the Grand Rapids area and launched into the national spotlight after becoming the only Republican member of Congress to support Trump's first impeachment. His name ID is at 27% split 7% favorable and 7% unfavorable and 71% not knowing who he is.

Pensler came in fourth on name ID at just under 20% ― 2% favorable, 6% unfavorable and 78% having not heard of him.

"I’m not seeing any traction out there for Pensler. That surprises me actually, given the amount of money he’s got available," Czuba said. "I’m really curious how they’re going to get the attention of Republican primary voters here."

Pensler, who self-funded his 2018 Senate bid by $5 million, went up on TV and digital platforms earlier this month with ads to contrast with his opponents in the race, including Slotkin and Rogers, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

"Michigan remains one of the closest Senate races in the country, and the more people learn about Sandy Pensler’s background as an economist, manufacturer and job creator, the more they will want to vote for Sandy Pensler for U.S. Senate," Pensler adviser Stu Sandler said Friday.

Among base GOP voters, Rogers led the GOP field in overall name identification with 42%, Meijer at 36%, Amash at 35%, Pensler at 19% and Dr. Sherry O'Donnell at 16%.

Meijer's name ID, however, was underwater with 6% favorable to 14% unfavorable. Rogers' name ID broke 11% favorable to 9% unfavorable.

“The nasty Senate primary fight will leave Republicans with a nominee who is badly damaged and out of touch with working families," said Sam Chan, spokesperson at Michigan Democratic Party.

mburke@detroitnews.com