It’s good news for Clemson and bad news for Michigan and Michigan State.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index and the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Clemson has a 36-percent chance to win college football’s national championship, far outdistancing Ohio State’s 21 percent and Alabama’s 17 percent.
Michigan and Michigan State? They have a less than 1-percent chance to even make the College Football Playoff, much less win the national championship.
Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics writes that Trevor Lawrence-led Clemson is aided by a moderate schedule – one that gives them a 90-plus-percent chance in every ACC game. The Tigers’ toughest matchup will be on Nov. 7 at Notre Dame, where Clemson will have an 87-percent chance of emerging victorious.
Fourth on the list, after Alabama, is Wisconsin, which has a 33-percent chance to make the playoff and a 6-percent chance to win the national title.
“Because Wisconsin has a strong schedule, if the Badgers were to go 12-0 to start the year – including wins at Michigan and vs. Notre Dame and Minnesota – but lose in the Big Ten championship game, the Allstate Playoff Predictor would still give them a 74-percent chance to reach the playoff,” Walder says.
College Football Playoff projections
Clemson: 81 percent reach playoff, 36 percent win championship
Ohio State: 64 percent reach playoff, 21 percent win championship
Alabama: 59 percent reach playoff, 17 percent win championship
Wisconsin: 33 percent reach playoff, 6 percent win championship
Georgia: 26 percent reach playoff, 5 percent win championship
LSU: 24 percent reach playoff, 4 percent win championship
Penn State: 23 percent reach playoff, 3 percent win championship
Oregon: 22 percent reach playoff, 2 percent win championship
Oklahoma: 15 percent reach playoff, 27 percent win championship
Texas: 10 percent reach playoff, 1 percent win championship
Auburn: 10 percent reach playoff, 1 percent win championship
UCF: 10 percent reach playoff, 1 percent win championship
Florida: 8 percent reach playoff, 1 percent win championship