ESPN data: 10,000 simulations reveal Lions' wins at high of 9, low of 5

The Detroit News
Kenny Golladay and the Lions open the season Sept. 8 at Arizona.

What’s the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Detroit Lions for the 2019 season?

ESPN Stats & Information ran 10,000 Football Power Index simulations for every NFL team for the 2019 season and determined that the Lions’ record ceiling was 9-7 and that the floor was 5-11.

According to the data, 90 percent of the simulations fell between nine wins and five wins.

The “biggest variable” for the Lions, according to Michael Rothstein, is new coordinator Darrell Bevell's offense taking hold.

“The Lions have built their defense in Matt Patricia's vision, but their success or lack thereof this year will be based on how the offense flows,” Rothstein says. “Bevell is a talented, veteran coordinator, and Detroit, in theory, has the pieces to make it work. If it does, and the run game can take pressure off Matthew Stafford and make his play-action skills more devastating, the Lions could hit or even eclipse the nine-win mark.”

Here are the ranges, according to the simulations, of the other teams in the NFC North:

Chicago Bears: 11-5 to 7-9

Green Bay Packers: 11-5 to 6-10

Minnesota Vikings: 11-5 to 6-10

Here are the record ranges and analysis for every team (pay site).

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More: Air of mystery surrounds Lions, Matt Patricia as season nears


Sun., Sept. 8, at Arizona, 4:25 p.m. (Fox)

Sun., Sept. 15, L.A. Chargers, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Sun., Sept. 22, at Philadelphia, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Sun., Sept. 29, Kansas City, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Mon., Oct. 14, at Green Bay, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Sun., Oct. 20, Minnesota, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Sun., Oct. 27, N.Y. Giants, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Sun., Nov. 3, at Oakland, 4 p.m. (Fox)

Sun., Nov. 10, at Chicago, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Sun., Nov. 17, Dallas, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Sun., Nov. 24, at Washington, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Thu., Nov. 28, Chicago, 12:30 p.m. (Fox)

Sun., Dec. 8, at Minnesota, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Sun., Dec. 15, Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. (Fox)

Sun., Dec. 22, at Denver, TBD (CBS)

Sun., Dec. 29, Green Bay, 1 p.m. (Fox)